Saturday 29 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–2✗ missed — the win we priced at 13% · RPS 0.586
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Lorient
IndexAttackDefense
65% WIN
2–0
Most likely score
Troyes
IndexAttackDefense
LORIENT 65%DRAW 22%TROYES 13%
FT 1–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.586). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Both teams score
48%
Expected goals
2.0 · 0.8
Lorient — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Troyes — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lorient and Troyes — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.