Sunday 11 Oct, 16:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Liverpool
65Index66Attack59Defense
WDWDD
40%MCI WIN
1–2
Likeliest MCI win · 9%
Manchester City
84Index86Attack71Defense
WWWWW
LIVERPOOL 35%DRAW 25%MAN CITY 40%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
67%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.7
Why
- Manchester City attack index 86 meets Liverpool defense index 59 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 35% vs 40% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
LIV 97 drawn8 MCI
2025/26LIV1–2MCI2026-02-08
2025/26MCI3–0LIV2025-11-09
2024/25MCI0–2LIV2025-02-23
2024/25LIV2–0MCI2024-12-01
2023/24LIV1–1MCI2024-03-10
Liverpool — projected scorers
Man City — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
LIV or draw60%
Draw or MCI65%
LIV or MCIno draw75%
Draw no bet
LIVstake returned on a draw46%
MCI54%
Clean sheets
LIV clean sheet18%
MCI clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIV↓ MCI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LIV goals, columns MCI. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-27) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.