Sunday 25 Oct, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Liverpool
65Index66Attack59Defense
WDWDD
41%LIV WIN
2–1
Likeliest LIV win · 9%
Brighton & Hove Albion
70Index67Attack67Defense
WWWDL
LIVERPOOL 41%DRAW 26%BRIGHTON 33%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
63%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.5
Why
- The model makes this 41% vs 33% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2017/18
LIV 104 drawn4 BHA
2025/26BHA2–1LIV2026-03-21
2025/26LIV2–0BHA2025-12-13
2024/25BHA3–2LIV2025-05-19
2024/25LIV2–1BHA2024-11-02
2023/24LIV2–1BHA2024-03-31
Liverpool — projected scorers
Brighton — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
LIV or draw67%
Draw or BHA59%
LIV or BHAno draw74%
Draw no bet
LIVstake returned on a draw55%
BHA45%
Clean sheets
LIV clean sheet23%
BHA clean sheet19%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIV↓ BHA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LIV goals, columns BHA. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-11) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.