Sunday 1 Nov, 16:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Liverpool
65Index62Attack65Defense
WLWDW
46%ARS WIN
1–2
Likeliest ARS win · 9%
Arsenal
97Index79Attack99Defense
WLWWW
LIVERPOOL 27%DRAW 27%ARSENAL 46%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
1.2 · 1.6
Why
- The model makes this 27% vs 46% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
LIV 1010 drawn4 ARS
2025/26ARS0–0LIV2026-01-08
2025/26LIV1–0ARS2025-08-31
2024/25LIV2–2ARS2025-05-11
2024/25ARS2–2LIV2024-10-27
2023/24ARS3–1LIV2024-02-04
Liverpool — projected scorers
Arsenal — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
LIV or draw54%
Draw or ARS73%
LIV or ARSno draw73%
Draw no bet
LIVstake returned on a draw37%
ARS63%
Clean sheets
LIV clean sheet21%
ARS clean sheet31%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LIV↓ ARS→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LIV goals, columns ARS. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-18) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.