Friday 28 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–2✗ missed — the draw we priced at 28% · RPS 0.133
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Lille
IndexAttackDefense
41% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Paris-Saint-Germain
IndexAttackDefense
LILLE 31%DRAW 28%PARIS-SAINT-GERMAIN 41%
FT 2–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.133). Graded 2026-08-28 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Both teams score
53%
Expected goals
1.2 · 1.4
Lille — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Paris-Saint-Germain — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lille and Paris-Saint-Germain — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.