Sunday 20 Sept, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Leeds United
52Index51Attack52Defense
DDWLW
48%LEE WIN
2–1
Likeliest LEE win · 9%
Crystal Palace
45Index57Attack33Defense
WLLLD
LEEDS 48%DRAW 25%CRYSTAL PALACE 28%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Both teams score
64%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.4
Why
- Leeds United attack index 51 meets Crystal Palace defense index 33 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 48% vs 27% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2020/21
LEE 32 drawn3 CRY
2025/26CRY0–0LEE2026-03-15
2025/26LEE4–1CRY2025-12-20
2022/23LEE1–5CRY2023-04-09
2022/23CRY2–1LEE2022-10-09
2021/22CRY0–0LEE2022-04-25
Leeds — projected scorers
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
LEE or draw73%
Draw or CRY52%
LEE or CRYno draw75%
Draw no bet
LEEstake returned on a draw63%
CRY37%
Clean sheets
LEE clean sheet25%
CRY clean sheet16%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| LEE↓ CRY→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are LEE goals, columns CRY. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.