Sunday 30 Aug, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–1✗ missed — the draw we priced at 25% · RPS 0.141
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Leeds United

55Index49Attack60Defense
LDWDD
41%LEE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Brentford

57Index67Attack45Defense
DWDDD
LEEDS 41%DRAW 25%BRENTFORD 33%
FT 1–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.141). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Both teams score
64%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.5
Head to head · 6 league meetings since 2021/22
LEE 14 drawn1 BRE
2025/26LEE0–0BRE2026-03-21
2025/26BRE1–1LEE2025-12-14
2022/23LEE0–0BRE2023-01-22
2022/23BRE5–2LEE2022-09-03
2021/22BRE1–2LEE2022-05-22
Leeds — projected scorers
Dominic Calvert-Lewin50%1% astGOAL
James Justin14%16% ast—
Lukas Nmecha14%12% astAST
Brenden Aaronson5%19% ast—
Jayden Bogle0%17% ast—
Ao Tanaka10%7% ast—
Brentford — projected scorers
Thiago39%5% ast—
Dango Ouattara19%27% ast—
Keane Lewis-Potter14%14% astAST
Mathias Jensen3%22% ast—
Kevin Schade18%6% astGOAL
Michael Kayode12%10% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.