Sunday 30 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–0✓ called — the win we priced at 45% · RPS 0.174
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Lazio
IndexAttackDefense
45% WIN
0–0
Most likely score
Genoa
IndexAttackDefense
LAZIO 45%DRAW 34%GENOA 21%
FT 1–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.174). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Both teams score
45%
Expected goals
1.3 · 0.8
Lazio — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Genoa — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lazio and Genoa — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.