Saturday 22 Aug, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–1✗ missed — the IPS win we priced at 26% · RPS 0.378
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Ipswich Town

6Index38Attack1Defense
LWLLL
46%SUN WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Sunderland

30Index23Attack46Defense
WLWWD
IPSWICH 26%DRAW 29%SUNDERLAND 46%
FT 2–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.378). Graded 2026-08-22 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
53%
Expected goals
1.1 · 1.5
Ipswich — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Sunderland — projected scorers
Enzo Le Fée11%59% ast—
Brian Brobbey36%8% ast—
Trai Hume9%15% ast—
Noah Sadiki12%7% ast—
Granit Xhaka5%11% ast—
Nordi Mukiele10%4% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.