Friday 23 Oct, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Ipswich Town
16Index32Attack6Defense
LWLLW
43%NOT WIN
1–2
Likeliest NOT win · 9%
Nottingham Forest
43Index40Attack49Defense
LWDDL
IPSWICH 31%DRAW 26%FOREST 43%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
63%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.7
Why
- Nottingham Forest attack index 40 meets Ipswich Town defense index 6 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 31% vs 43% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2024/25
IPS 00 drawn2 NOT
2024/25IPS2–4NOT2025-03-15
2024/25NOT1–0IPS2024-11-30
Ipswich — projected scorers
Forest — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
IPS or draw57%
Draw or NOT69%
IPS or NOTno draw74%
Draw no bet
IPSstake returned on a draw41%
NOT59%
Clean sheets
IPS clean sheet18%
NOT clean sheet25%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| IPS↓ NOT→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are IPS goals, columns NOT. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-09) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.