Friday 4 Sept, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 5)
Ipswich Town
6Index38Attack1Defense
LWLLL
64%LIV WIN
1–2
Likeliest LIV win · 8%
Liverpool
62Index71Attack47Defense
DDDLD
IPSWICH 18%DRAW 18%LIVERPOOL 64%
Over 2.5 goals
80%
Both teams score
73%
Expected goals
1.5 · 2.8
Why
- Liverpool attack index 71 meets Ipswich Town defense index 1 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 18% vs 64% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2024/25
IPS 00 drawn2 LIV
2024/25LIV4–1IPS2025-01-25
2024/25IPS0–2LIV2024-08-17
Ipswich — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Liverpool — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals93%
Over 2.5 goals80%
Over 3.5 goals61%
Both teams score73%
Double chance
IPS or draw36%
Draw or LIV82%
IPS or LIVno draw82%
Draw no bet
IPSstake returned on a draw22%
LIV78%
Clean sheets
IPS clean sheet6%
LIV clean sheet23%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| IPS↓ LIV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are IPS goals, columns LIV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 5 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 20:24IPS 18.1% (+0.3 since first)draw 18.0%LIV 64.0%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.