Saturday 22 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
4–1✓ called — the win we priced at 88% · RPS 0.008
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Inter
IndexAttackDefense
88% WIN
2–0
Most likely score
Monza
IndexAttackDefense
INTER 88%DRAW 10%MONZA 3%
FT 4–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.008). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
70%
Both teams score
42%
Expected goals
3.1 · 0.6
Inter — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Monza — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Inter and Monza — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.