Saturday 5 Sept, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–0✗ missed — the draw we priced at 26% · RPS 0.150
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Hull City

27Index19Attack41Defense
DLDDW
48%AVL WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Aston Villa

44Index46Attack43Defense
DWLDL
HULL 27%DRAW 26%ASTON VILLA 48%
FT 0–0 — the model missed (RPS 0.150). Graded 2026-09-05 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Both teams score
59%
Expected goals
1.2 · 1.7
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2014/15
HUL 10 drawn1 AVL
2014/15HUL2–0AVL2015-02-10
2014/15AVL2–1HUL2014-08-31
Hull — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Aston Villa — projected scorers
Ollie Watkins39%12% ast—
John McGinn6%28% ast—
Ross Barkley12%18% ast—
Emiliano Buendía7%21% ast—
Ian Maatsen4%15% ast—
Morgan Rogers9%10% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.