Saturday 5 Sept, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 5)
Hull City
39Index28Attack55Defense
WWLLL
49%AVL WIN
1–2
Likeliest AVL win · 10%
Aston Villa
46Index51Attack42Defense
LWWDL
HULL 26%DRAW 25%ASTON VILLA 49%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.8
Why
- Aston Villa have 6 extra days of rest.
- The model makes this 26% vs 49% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2014/15
HUL 10 drawn1 AVL
2014/15HUL2–0AVL2015-02-10
2014/15AVL2–1HUL2014-08-31
Hull — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score60%
Double chance
HUL or draw51%
Draw or AVL74%
HUL or AVLno draw75%
Draw no bet
HULstake returned on a draw35%
AVL65%
Clean sheets
HUL clean sheet17%
AVL clean sheet29%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| HUL↓ AVL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are HUL goals, columns AVL. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 5 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 20:24HUL 26.0% (−0.2 since first)draw 25.4%AVL 48.6%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Hull — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.