Sunday 23 Aug, 18:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–0✓ called — the win we priced at 46% · RPS 0.167
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Getafe

IndexAttackDefense
46% WIN
1–0
Most likely score

Racing-Santander

IndexAttackDefense
GETAFE 46%DRAW 33%RACING-SANTANDER 21%
FT 1–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.167). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Both teams score
39%
Expected goals
1.2 · 0.7
Getafe — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Racing-Santander — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Getafe and Racing-Santander — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.