Saturday 22 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–2✓ called — the win we priced at 47% · RPS 0.159
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Genoa
IndexAttackDefense
47% WIN
0–1
Most likely score
Napoli
IndexAttackDefense
GENOA 20%DRAW 33%NAPOLI 47%
FT 0–2 — the model called it (RPS 0.159). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Both teams score
45%
Expected goals
0.8 · 1.3
Genoa — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Napoli — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Genoa and Napoli — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.