Sunday 23 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–1✓ called — the win we priced at 65% · RPS 0.068
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Frosinone
IndexAttackDefense
65% WIN
0–1
Most likely score
Juventus
IndexAttackDefense
FROSINONE 12%DRAW 23%JUVENTUS 65%
FT 0–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.068). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Both teams score
50%
Expected goals
0.8 · 2.0
Frosinone — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Juventus — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Frosinone and Juventus — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.