Sunday 30 Aug, 14:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
4–1✓ called — the win we priced at 51% · RPS 0.145
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Freiburg
IndexAttackDefense
51% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Werder-Bremen
IndexAttackDefense
FREIBURG 51%DRAW 25%WERDER-BREMEN 23%
FT 4–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.145). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
55%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.1
Freiburg — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Werder-Bremen — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Freiburg and Werder-Bremen — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.