Saturday 29 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–3✗ missed — the win we priced at 20% · RPS 0.462
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Fiorentina

IndexAttackDefense
53% WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Frosinone

IndexAttackDefense
FIORENTINA 53%DRAW 28%FROSINONE 20%
FT 0–3 — the model missed (RPS 0.462). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
53%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.0
Fiorentina — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Frosinone — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Fiorentina and Frosinone — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.