Saturday 29 Aug, 14:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
3–2✓ called — the win we priced at 40% · RPS 0.248
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Fc-Cologne
IndexAttackDefense
40% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Hoffenheim
IndexAttackDefense
FC-COLOGNE 40%DRAW 24%HOFFENHEIM 37%
FT 3–2 — the model called it (RPS 0.248). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
67%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.7
Fc-Cologne — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Hoffenheim — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Fc-Cologne and Hoffenheim — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.