Saturday 19 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 3)
Everton
38Index36Attack44Defense
DWLLD
60%EVE WIN
2–1
Likeliest EVE win · 10%
Ipswich Town
7Index24Attack3Defense
LLWLL
EVERTON 60%DRAW 23%IPSWICH 18%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Both teams score
58%
Expected goals
2.1 · 1.1
Why
- Everton attack index 36 meets Ipswich Town defense index 3 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 60% vs 18% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2024/25
EVE 11 drawn0 IPS
2024/25EVE2–2IPS2025-05-03
2024/25IPS0–2EVE2024-10-19
Everton — projected scorers
Ipswich — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score58%
Double chance
EVE or draw82%
Draw or IPS41%
EVE or IPSno draw77%
Draw no bet
EVEstake returned on a draw77%
IPS23%
Clean sheets
EVE clean sheet35%
IPS clean sheet13%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| EVE↓ IPS→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are EVE goals, columns IPS. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 3 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
5 Sept, 20:11EVE 59.6% (−1.2 since first)draw 22.9%IPS 17.6%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.