Saturday 22 Aug, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–0✓ called — the EVE win we priced at 39% · RPS 0.247
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Everton

38Index36Attack45Defense
DWLLD
39%EVE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Crystal Palace

46Index53Attack39Defense
LLLDL
EVERTON 39%DRAW 28%CRYSTAL PALACE 34%
FT 2–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.247). Graded 2026-08-22 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.4
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
EVE 1210 drawn2 CRY
2025/26CRY2–2EVE2026-05-10
2025/26EVE2–1CRY2025-10-05
2024/25CRY1–2EVE2025-02-15
2024/25EVE2–1CRY2024-09-28
2023/24EVE1–1CRY2024-02-19
Everton — projected scorers
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall21%27% astGOAL
Iliman Ndiaye22%19% astAST
Beto27%5% ast—
Thierno Barry21%3% astGOAL
James Garner2%21% ast—
James Tarkowski10%12% ast—
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Adam Wharton3%37% ast—
Ismaila Sarr33%5% ast—
Daniel Muñoz10%21% ast—
Yeremi Pino3%25% ast—
Jean-Philippe Mateta23%2% ast—
Daichi Kamada2%19% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.