Saturday 22 Aug, 20:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–2✓ called — the win we priced at 52% · RPS 0.144
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Espanyol

IndexAttackDefense
52% WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Real-Madrid

IndexAttackDefense
ESPANYOL 24%DRAW 24%REAL-MADRID 52%
FT 1–2 — the model called it (RPS 0.144). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Both teams score
57%
Expected goals
1.1 · 1.8
Espanyol — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Real-Madrid — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Espanyol and Real-Madrid — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.