Saturday 29 Aug, 14:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
3–2✗ missed — the win we priced at 20% · RPS 0.494
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Elversberg
IndexAttackDefense
59% WIN
1–2
Most likely score
Bayer-Leverkusen
IndexAttackDefense
ELVERSBERG 20%DRAW 21%BAYER-LEVERKUSEN 59%
FT 3–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.494). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
63%
Expected goals
1.2 · 2.2
Elversberg — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Bayer-Leverkusen — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Elversberg and Bayer-Leverkusen — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.