Sunday 23 Aug, 20:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–5✓ called — the win we priced at 64% · RPS 0.079
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Elche
IndexAttackDefense
64% WIN
1–2
Most likely score
Barcelona
IndexAttackDefense
ELCHE 17%DRAW 19%BARCELONA 64%
FT 0–5 — the model called it (RPS 0.079). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Both teams score
66%
Expected goals
1.3 · 2.5
Elche — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Barcelona — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Elche and Barcelona — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.