Sunday 30 Aug, 18:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
3–1✗ missed — the win we priced at 32% · RPS 0.306
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Deportivo
IndexAttackDefense
39% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Valencia
IndexAttackDefense
DEPORTIVO 32%DRAW 29%VALENCIA 39%
FT 3–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.306). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Both teams score
50%
Expected goals
1.1 · 1.3
Deportivo — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Valencia — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Deportivo and Valencia — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.