Sunday 11 Oct, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Crystal Palace
41Index51Attack32Defense
DLWLL
42%CRY WIN
2–1
Likeliest CRY win · 9%
Nottingham Forest
43Index40Attack49Defense
LWDDL
CRYSTAL PALACE 42%DRAW 26%FOREST 32%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
62%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.4
Why
- The model makes this 42% vs 32% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
CRY 06 drawn2 NOT
2025/26NOT1–1CRY2026-02-01
2025/26CRY1–1NOT2025-08-24
2024/25CRY1–1NOT2025-05-05
2024/25NOT1–0CRY2024-10-21
2023/24NOT1–1CRY2024-03-30
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Forest — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score62%
Double chance
CRY or draw68%
Draw or NOT58%
CRY or NOTno draw74%
Draw no bet
CRYstake returned on a draw57%
NOT43%
Clean sheets
CRY clean sheet25%
NOT clean sheet20%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CRY↓ NOT→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are CRY goals, columns NOT. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-27) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.