Friday 28 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–4✓ called — the MCI win we priced at 49% · RPS 0.168
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Crystal Palace

39Index53Attack27Defense
WDLWL
49%MCI WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Manchester City

87Index89Attack78Defense
WWWWW
CRYSTAL PALACE 27%DRAW 24%MAN CITY 49%
FT 1–4 — the model called it (RPS 0.168). Graded 2026-08-28 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
65%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.9
Head to head · 24 league meetings since 2014/15
CRY 35 drawn16 MCI
2025/26MCI3–0CRY2026-05-13
2025/26CRY0–3MCI2025-12-14
2024/25MCI5–2CRY2025-04-12
2024/25CRY2–2MCI2024-12-07
2023/24CRY2–4MCI2024-04-06
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Jean-Philippe Mateta34%3% ast—
Adam Wharton2%31% ast—
Daniel Muñoz11%16% ast—
Ismaila Sarr22%4% ast—
Daichi Kamada2%22% ast—
Tyrick Mitchell6%15% ast—
Man City — projected scorers
Erling Haaland31%6% astGOAL
Mathis Cherki12%25% astGOAL
Phil Foden8%26% astAST
Antoine Semenyo15%12% astAST
Jéremy Doku7%16% ast—
Nico O'Reilly13%8% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.