Saturday 12 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 4)
Crystal Palace
46Index53Attack39Defense
LLLDL
70%CRY WIN
2–1
Likeliest CRY win · 8%
Ipswich Town
6Index38Attack1Defense
LWLLL
CRYSTAL PALACE 70%DRAW 17%IPSWICH 14%
Over 2.5 goals
78%
Both teams score
69%
Expected goals
2.9 · 1.3
Why
- Crystal Palace attack index 53 meets Ipswich Town defense index 1 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 70% vs 14% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2024/25
CRY 20 drawn0 IPS
2024/25CRY1–0IPS2025-03-08
2024/25IPS0–1CRY2024-12-03
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Ipswich — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals92%
Over 2.5 goals78%
Over 3.5 goals60%
Both teams score69%
Double chance
CRY or draw86%
Draw or IPS31%
CRY or IPSno draw83%
Draw no bet
CRYstake returned on a draw83%
IPS17%
Clean sheets
CRY clean sheet28%
IPS clean sheet6%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CRY↓ IPS→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are CRY goals, columns IPS. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 4 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 20:24CRY 69.5% (+5.2 since first)draw 16.6%IPS 13.9%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.