Saturday 31 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Coventry City
24Index15Attack37Defense
WWLLL
37%SUN WIN
1–2
Likeliest SUN win · 8%
Sunderland
39Index36Attack44Defense
LLLDW
COVENTRY 34%DRAW 29%SUNDERLAND 37%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.4
Why
- The model makes this 34% vs 37% — closer than the table suggests.
Coventry — projected scorers
Sunderland — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
COV or draw63%
Draw or SUN66%
COV or SUNno draw71%
Draw no bet
COVstake returned on a draw48%
SUN52%
Clean sheets
COV clean sheet25%
SUN clean sheet27%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| COV↓ SUN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are COV goals, columns SUN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-17) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.