Saturday 29 Aug, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–1✗ missed — the HUL win we priced at 30% · RPS 0.340
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Coventry City
24Index15Attack37Defense
WWLLL
43%COV WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Hull City
27Index19Attack41Defense
DLDDW
COVENTRY 43%DRAW 28%HULL 30%
FT 0–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.340). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Both teams score
57%
Expected goals
1.5 · 1.2
Coventry — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Hull — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.