Saturday 10 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Chelsea
54Index64Attack41Defense
LDLWW
41%CHE WIN
2–1
Likeliest CHE win · 9%
Bournemouth
61Index63Attack56Defense
LDDDL
CHELSEA 41%DRAW 25%BOURNEMOUTH 35%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
67%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.6
Why
- Bournemouth attack index 63 meets Chelsea defense index 41 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 41% vs 35% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2015/16
CHE 95 drawn4 BOU
2025/26CHE2–2BOU2025-12-30
2025/26BOU0–0CHE2025-12-06
2024/25CHE2–2BOU2025-01-14
2024/25BOU0–1CHE2024-09-14
2023/24CHE2–1BOU2024-05-19
Chelsea — projected scorers
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
CHE or draw66%
Draw or BOU59%
CHE or BOUno draw75%
Draw no bet
CHEstake returned on a draw54%
BOU46%
Clean sheets
CHE clean sheet20%
BOU clean sheet18%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| CHE↓ BOU→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are CHE goals, columns BOU. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-26) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.