Sunday 30 Aug, 20:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–2✗ missed — the win we priced at 28% · RPS 0.363
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Celta-Vigo

IndexAttackDefense
45% WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Athletic-Club

IndexAttackDefense
CELTA-VIGO 45%DRAW 28%ATHLETIC-CLUB 28%
FT 0–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.363). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Both teams score
52%
Expected goals
1.4 · 1.1
Celta-Vigo — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Athletic-Club — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Celta-Vigo and Athletic-Club — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.