Sunday 30 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
0–1✓ called — the win we priced at 67% · RPS 0.059
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Cagliari
IndexAttackDefense
67% WIN
0–2
Most likely score
Inter
IndexAttackDefense
CAGLIARI 11%DRAW 21%INTER 67%
FT 0–1 — the model called it (RPS 0.059). Graded 2026-08-30 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
53%
Expected goals
0.9 · 2.2
Cagliari — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Inter — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Cagliari and Inter — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.