Saturday 5 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–1✗ missed — the draw we priced at 26% · RPS 0.148
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Brighton & Hove Albion

70Index67Attack69Defense
WWWDL
48%BHA WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Leeds United

55Index49Attack60Defense
LDWDD
BRIGHTON 48%DRAW 26%LEEDS 26%
FT 1–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.148). Graded 2026-09-05 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.2
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2020/21
BHA 43 drawn1 LEE
2025/26LEE1–0BHA2026-05-17
2025/26BHA3–0LEE2025-11-01
2022/23LEE2–2BHA2023-03-11
2022/23BHA1–0LEE2022-08-27
2021/22LEE1–1BHA2022-05-15
Brighton — projected scorers
Maxim De Cuyper19%29% astAST
Jack Hinshelwood30%12% ast—
Pascal Groß5%23% ast—
Georginio Rutter6%21% ast—
Diego Gómez13%12% ast—
Charalampos Kostoulas9%9% ast—
Leeds — projected scorers
Dominic Calvert-Lewin37%1% ast—
Lukas Nmecha11%16% ast—
James Justin10%11% ast—
Brenden Aaronson3%13% ast—
Jayden Bogle0%10% astGOAL
Ao Tanaka6%4% astAST

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.