Saturday 5 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 6)
Brighton & Hove Albion
61Index56Attack61Defense
LWLLW
48%BHA WIN
2–1
Likeliest BHA win · 10%
Leeds United
51Index48Attack54Defense
DWLWD
BRIGHTON 48%DRAW 27%LEEDS 26%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.1
Why
- The model makes this 48% vs 26% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2020/21
BHA 43 drawn1 LEE
2025/26LEE1–0BHA2026-05-17
2025/26BHA3–0LEE2025-11-01
2022/23LEE2–2BHA2023-03-11
2022/23BHA1–0LEE2022-08-27
2021/22LEE1–1BHA2022-05-15
Brighton — projected scorers
Leeds — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
BHA or draw74%
Draw or LEE52%
BHA or LEEno draw73%
Draw no bet
BHAstake returned on a draw65%
LEE35%
Clean sheets
BHA clean sheet32%
LEE clean sheet19%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BHA↓ LEE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BHA goals, columns LEE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 6 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 16:29BHA 47.8% (−1.1 since first)draw 26.6%LEE 25.6%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.