Sunday 18 Oct, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Brighton & Hove Albion
67Index67Attack63Defense
WWDLW
57%BHA WIN
2–1
Likeliest BHA win · 10%
Crystal Palace
41Index51Attack32Defense
DLWLL
BRIGHTON 57%DRAW 23%CRYSTAL PALACE 21%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
63%
Expected goals
2.1 · 1.2
Why
- Brighton & Hove Albion attack index 67 meets Crystal Palace defense index 32 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- Brighton & Hove Albion average 2.8 xG at home this season.
- The model makes this 57% vs 21% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2017/18
BHA 48 drawn6 CRY
2025/26BHA0–1CRY2026-02-08
2025/26CRY0–0BHA2025-11-09
2024/25CRY2–1BHA2025-04-05
2024/25BHA1–3CRY2024-12-15
2023/24BHA4–1CRY2024-02-03
Brighton — projected scorers
Crystal Palace — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score63%
Double chance
BHA or draw79%
Draw or CRY43%
BHA or CRYno draw78%
Draw no bet
BHAstake returned on a draw73%
CRY27%
Clean sheets
BHA clean sheet29%
CRY clean sheet12%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BHA↓ CRY→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BHA goals, columns CRY. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-04) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.