Sunday 23 Aug, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
4–0✓ called — the BHA win we priced at 44% · RPS 0.199
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Brighton & Hove Albion

61Index56Attack61Defense
LWLLW
44%BHA WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Aston Villa

46Index51Attack42Defense
LWWDL
BRIGHTON 44%DRAW 27%ASTON VILLA 29%
FT 4–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.199). Graded 2026-08-23 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Both teams score
60%
Expected goals
1.6 · 1.3
Head to head · 14 league meetings since 2019/20
BHA 23 drawn9 AVL
2025/26AVL1–0BHA2026-02-11
2025/26BHA3–4AVL2025-12-03
2024/25BHA0–3AVL2025-04-02
2024/25AVL2–2BHA2024-12-30
2023/24BHA1–0AVL2024-05-05
Brighton — projected scorers
Jack Hinshelwood36%18% astGOAL
Yankuba Minteh19%21% ast—
Danny Welbeck25%10% ast—
Maxim De Cuyper2%28% astGOAL
Pascal Groß7%19% ast—
Kaoru Mitoma18%5% ast—
Aston Villa — projected scorers
Ollie Watkins46%14% ast—
Ross Barkley11%15% ast—
Morgan Rogers13%13% ast—
John McGinn4%20% ast—
Emiliano Buendía5%18% ast—
Ian Maatsen2%11% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.