Saturday 19 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 4)
Brighton & Hove Albion
59Index58Attack58Defense
DLWLL
49%ARS WIN
0–1
Likeliest ARS win · 10%
Arsenal
99Index76Attack99Defense
WWWWW
BRIGHTON 23%DRAW 28%ARSENAL 49%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Both teams score
52%
Expected goals
1.0 · 1.6
Why
- Arsenal attack index 76 meets Brighton & Hove Albion defense index 58 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 23% vs 49% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2017/18
BHA 55 drawn8 ARS
2025/26BHA0–1ARS2026-03-04
2025/26ARS2–1BHA2025-12-27
2024/25BHA1–1ARS2025-01-04
2024/25ARS1–1BHA2024-08-31
2023/24BHA0–3ARS2024-04-06
Brighton — projected scorers
Arsenal — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
BHA or draw51%
Draw or ARS77%
BHA or ARSno draw72%
Draw no bet
BHAstake returned on a draw32%
ARS68%
Clean sheets
BHA clean sheet21%
ARS clean sheet36%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BHA↓ ARS→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BHA goals, columns ARS. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 4 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
5 Sept, 20:11BHA 23.1% (−1.4 since first)draw 27.9%ARS 49.0%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.