Saturday 29 Aug, 19:45 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–2✗ missed — the draw we priced at 28% · RPS 0.131
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Brest
IndexAttackDefense
37% WIN
1–1
Most likely score
Toulouse
IndexAttackDefense
BREST 35%DRAW 28%TOULOUSE 37%
FT 2–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.131). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
1.3 · 1.4
Brest — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Toulouse — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Brest and Toulouse — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.