Saturday 22 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
3–0✓ called — the BRE win we priced at 51% · RPS 0.149
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Brentford

59Index67Attack47Defense
DWDDL
51%BRE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Tottenham Hotspur

32Index31Attack41Defense
LLWLD
BRENTFORD 51%DRAW 25%SPURS 24%
FT 3–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.149). Graded 2026-08-22 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
61%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.2
Head to head · 10 league meetings since 2021/22
BRE 14 drawn5 TOT
2025/26BRE0–0TOT2026-01-01
2025/26TOT2–0BRE2025-12-06
2024/25BRE0–2TOT2025-02-02
2024/25TOT3–1BRE2024-09-21
2023/24TOT3–2BRE2024-01-31
Brentford — projected scorers
Dango Ouattara28%35% ast—
Thiago48%7% ast—
Keane Lewis-Potter16%21% astGOAL
Mathias Jensen4%29% ast—
Kevin Schade24%8% ast—
Mikkel Damsgaard11%18% ast—
Spurs — projected scorers
Richarlison37%15% ast—
Mathys Tel11%34% ast—
Pedro Porro8%17% ast—
Conor Gallagher7%7% ast—
Kevin Danso6%2% ast—
Iyenoma Destiny Udogie0%4% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.