Saturday 5 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–1✗ missed — the draw we priced at 23% · RPS 0.189
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Brentford

57Index67Attack45Defense
DWDDD
59%BRE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Sunderland

39Index36Attack44Defense
LLLDW
BRENTFORD 59%DRAW 23%SUNDERLAND 18%
FT 1–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.189). Graded 2026-09-05 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
57%
Expected goals
2.0 · 1.0
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2025/26
BRE 10 drawn1 SUN
2025/26BRE3–0SUN2026-01-07
2025/26SUN2–1BRE2025-08-30
Brentford — projected scorers
Thiago45%7% ast—
Dango Ouattara23%23% ast—
Kevin Schade26%10% ast—
Keane Lewis-Potter18%17% ast—
Mathias Jensen3%25% ast—
Michael Kayode13%15% ast—
Sunderland — projected scorers
Enzo Le Fée8%42% astGOAL
Brian Brobbey26%4% ast—
Trai Hume6%16% ast—
Noah Sadiki9%5% ast—
Granit Xhaka2%9% ast—
Nordi Mukiele5%2% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.