Saturday 5 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 7)
Brentford
59Index67Attack47Defense
DWDDL
58%BRE WIN
2–1
Likeliest BRE win · 10%
Sunderland
30Index23Attack46Defense
WLWWD
BRENTFORD 58%DRAW 23%SUNDERLAND 18%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Both teams score
56%
Expected goals
2.0 · 1.0
Why
- Brentford attack index 67 meets Sunderland defense index 46 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- The model makes this 58% vs 18% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 2 league meetings since 2025/26
BRE 10 drawn1 SUN
2025/26BRE3–0SUN2026-01-07
2025/26SUN2–1BRE2025-08-30
Brentford — projected scorers
Sunderland — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
BRE or draw82%
Draw or SUN42%
BRE or SUNno draw77%
Draw no bet
BREstake returned on a draw76%
SUN24%
Clean sheets
BRE clean sheet36%
SUN clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BRE↓ SUN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BRE goals, columns SUN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 7 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 20:24BRE 58.4% (−0.8 since first)draw 23.4%SUN 18.2%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.