Saturday 31 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Brentford
57Index67Attack45Defense
DWDDD
48%BRE WIN
2–1
Likeliest BRE win · 9%
Nottingham Forest
47Index47Attack48Defense
LLWDD
BRENTFORD 48%DRAW 25%FOREST 28%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams score
65%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.4
Why
- Brentford attack index 67 meets Nottingham Forest defense index 48 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- Brentford average 2.7 xG at home this season.
- The model makes this 48% vs 28% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
BRE 32 drawn3 NOT
2025/26BRE0–2NOT2026-01-25
2025/26NOT3–1BRE2025-08-17
2024/25NOT0–2BRE2025-05-01
2024/25BRE0–2NOT2024-12-21
2023/24BRE3–2NOT2024-01-20
Brentford — projected scorers
Forest — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams score65%
Double chance
BRE or draw73%
Draw or NOT52%
BRE or NOTno draw76%
Draw no bet
BREstake returned on a draw64%
NOT36%
Clean sheets
BRE clean sheet25%
NOT clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BRE↓ NOT→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BRE goals, columns NOT. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-17) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.