Saturday 17 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Brentford
58Index67Attack44Defense
WDDDW
41%BRE WIN
2–1
Likeliest BRE win · 9%
Liverpool
65Index66Attack59Defense
WDWDD
BRENTFORD 41%DRAW 25%LIVERPOOL 34%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
67%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.6
Why
- Liverpool attack index 66 meets Brentford defense index 44 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- Brentford average 2.7 xG at home this season.
- The model makes this 41% vs 34% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 10 league meetings since 2021/22
BRE 22 drawn6 LIV
2025/26LIV1–1BRE2026-05-24
2025/26BRE3–2LIV2025-10-25
2024/25BRE0–2LIV2025-01-18
2024/25LIV2–0BRE2024-08-25
2023/24BRE1–4LIV2024-02-17
Brentford — projected scorers
Liverpool — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals43%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
BRE or draw66%
Draw or LIV59%
BRE or LIVno draw75%
Draw no bet
BREstake returned on a draw54%
LIV46%
Clean sheets
BRE clean sheet20%
LIV clean sheet17%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BRE↓ LIV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BRE goals, columns LIV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-03) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.