Friday 18 Sept, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Brentford
59Index67Attack47Defense
DWDDL
45%BRE WIN
2–1
Likeliest BRE win · 9%
Chelsea
61Index68Attack49Defense
WWLWD
BRENTFORD 45%DRAW 23%CHELSEA 32%
Over 2.5 goals
69%
Both teams score
69%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.6
Why
- Chelsea attack index 68 meets Brentford defense index 47 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 45% vs 32% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 10 league meetings since 2021/22
BRE 34 drawn3 CHE
2025/26CHE2–0BRE2026-01-17
2025/26BRE2–2CHE2025-09-13
2024/25BRE0–0CHE2025-04-06
2024/25CHE2–1BRE2024-12-15
2023/24BRE2–2CHE2024-03-02
Brentford — projected scorers
Chelsea — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals69%
Over 3.5 goals47%
Both teams score69%
Double chance
BRE or draw68%
Draw or CHE55%
BRE or CHEno draw77%
Draw no bet
BREstake returned on a draw58%
CHE42%
Clean sheets
BRE clean sheet20%
CHE clean sheet14%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BRE↓ CHE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BRE goals, columns CHE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-09-04) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.