Friday 18 Sept, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
3–0✓ called — the BRE win we priced at 43% · RPS 0.214
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Brentford

56Index64Attack46Defense
LDWDD
43%BRE WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Chelsea

57Index64Attack48Defense
WWLDL
BRENTFORD 43%DRAW 24%CHELSEA 33%
FT 3–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.214). Graded 2026-09-19 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
70%
Both teams score
71%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.7
Head to head · 10 league meetings since 2021/22
BRE 34 drawn3 CHE
2025/26CHE2–0BRE2026-01-17
2025/26BRE2–2CHE2025-09-13
2024/25BRE0–0CHE2025-04-06
2024/25CHE2–1BRE2024-12-15
2023/24BRE2–2CHE2024-03-02
Brentford — projected scorers
Thiago42%4% astGOAL
Keane Lewis-Potter21%21% ast—
Kevin Schade27%11% ast—
Dango Ouattara19%16% ast—
Mikkel Damsgaard7%19% ast—
Michael Kayode11%12% ast—
Chelsea — projected scorers
Cole Palmer28%27% ast—
João Pedro31%12% ast—
Morgan Rogers11%14% ast—
Romeo Lavia15%3% ast—
Malo Gusto2%16% ast—
Jorrel Hato0%11% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.