Sunday 18 Oct, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Bournemouth
61Index63Attack56Defense
LDDDL
53%BOU WIN
2–1
Likeliest BOU win · 10%
Sunderland
41Index42Attack42Defense
LLDWL
BOURNEMOUTH 53%DRAW 24%SUNDERLAND 23%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Both teams score
61%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.2
Why
- Bournemouth attack index 63 meets Sunderland defense index 42 — one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
- Bournemouth average 1.9 xG at home this season.
- The model makes this 53% vs 23% — a clear favorite on the numbers.
Head to head · 6 league meetings since 2015/16
BOU 22 drawn2 SUN
2025/26BOU1–1SUN2026-02-28
2025/26SUN3–2BOU2025-11-29
2016/17SUN0–1BOU2017-04-29
2016/17BOU1–2SUN2016-11-05
2015/16SUN1–1BOU2016-01-23
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Sunderland — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
BOU or draw77%
Draw or SUN47%
BOU or SUNno draw76%
Draw no bet
BOUstake returned on a draw70%
SUN30%
Clean sheets
BOU clean sheet30%
SUN clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BOU↓ SUN→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BOU goals, columns SUN. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-04) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.