Sunday 20 Sept, 14:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Bournemouth
59Index64Attack51Defense
DDLDD
44%BOU WIN
2–1
Likeliest BOU win · 9%
Liverpool
61Index67Attack50Defense
WDDDL
BOURNEMOUTH 44%DRAW 25%LIVERPOOL 32%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
67%
Expected goals
1.8 · 1.5
Why
- Liverpool attack index 67 meets Bournemouth defense index 51 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 44% vs 32% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2015/16
BOU 31 drawn14 LIV
2025/26BOU3–2LIV2026-01-24
2025/26LIV4–2BOU2025-08-15
2024/25BOU0–2LIV2025-02-01
2024/25LIV3–0BOU2024-09-21
2023/24BOU0–4LIV2024-01-21
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Liverpool — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score67%
Double chance
BOU or draw68%
Draw or LIV56%
BOU or LIVno draw75%
Draw no bet
BOUstake returned on a draw58%
LIV42%
Clean sheets
BOU clean sheet22%
LIV clean sheet16%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BOU↓ LIV→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BOU goals, columns LIV. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.