Saturday 31 Oct, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries
Bournemouth
61Index63Attack57Defense
LLDDD
45%BOU WIN
2–1
Likeliest BOU win · 9%
Leeds United
55Index49Attack60Defense
LDWDD
BOURNEMOUTH 45%DRAW 26%LEEDS 29%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Both teams score
61%
Expected goals
1.7 · 1.3
Why
- Bournemouth average 1.9 xG at home this season.
- The model makes this 45% vs 29% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 4 league meetings since 2022/23
BOU 12 drawn1 LEE
2025/26BOU2–2LEE2026-04-22
2025/26LEE2–2BOU2025-09-27
2022/23BOU4–1LEE2023-04-30
2022/23LEE4–3BOU2022-11-05
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Leeds — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals35%
Both teams score61%
Double chance
BOU or draw71%
Draw or LEE55%
BOU or LEEno draw74%
Draw no bet
BOUstake returned on a draw61%
LEE39%
Clean sheets
BOU clean sheet27%
LEE clean sheet19%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BOU↓ LEE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BOU goals, columns LEE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price held steady since first assessment (2026-10-17) — reassessed after every played match, frozen at kickoff.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.