Saturday 29 Aug, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
1–1✗ missed — the draw we priced at 24% · RPS 0.172
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Bournemouth

61Index63Attack57Defense
LLDDD
55%BOU WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Everton

44Index38Attack52Defense
DWDDD
BOURNEMOUTH 55%DRAW 24%EVERTON 21%
FT 1–1 — the model missed (RPS 0.172). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams score
59%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.1
Head to head · 18 league meetings since 2015/16
BOU 92 drawn7 EVE
2025/26EVE1–2BOU2026-02-10
2025/26BOU0–1EVE2025-12-02
2024/25BOU1–0EVE2025-01-04
2024/25EVE2–3BOU2024-08-31
2023/24BOU2–1EVE2024-03-30
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Marcus Tavernier31%32% ast—
Adrien Truffert16%27% ast—
Rayan18%23% ast—
Eli Junior Kroupi31%7% ast—
Evanilson22%14% astAST
Tyler Adams1%18% ast—
Everton — projected scorers
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall12%20% ast—
Iliman Ndiaye17%15% ast—
Beto22%4% ast—
Tyrique George4%20% ast—
Thierno Barry20%4% ast—
James Tarkowski6%8% astGOAL

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.