Saturday 12 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–2✗ missed — the draw we priced at 24% · RPS 0.152
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Bournemouth

61Index63Attack57Defense
LLDDD
47%BOU WIN
1–1
Most likely score

Brentford

57Index67Attack45Defense
DWDDD
BOURNEMOUTH 47%DRAW 24%BRENTFORD 29%
FT 2–2 — the model missed (RPS 0.152). Graded 2026-09-12 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Both teams score
68%
Expected goals
2.0 · 1.5
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
BOU 03 drawn5 BRE
2025/26BOU0–0BRE2026-03-03
2025/26BRE4–1BOU2025-12-27
2024/25BOU1–2BRE2025-03-15
2024/25BRE3–2BOU2024-11-09
2023/24BOU1–2BRE2024-05-11
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Marcus Tavernier35%31% astGOAL
Evanilson27%22% astAST
Rayan25%19% ast—
Adrien Truffert16%16% ast—
Tyler Adams1%20% ast—
Alex Scott6%15% ast—
Brentford — projected scorers
Thiago37%4% ast—
Dango Ouattara17%17% ast—
Keane Lewis-Potter16%19% ast—
Kevin Schade19%7% astGOAL
Mikkel Damsgaard6%18% ast—
Michael Kayode9%10% ast—

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.