Saturday 12 Sept, 15:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after this week's earlier results (rev 4)
Bournemouth
58Index63Attack48Defense
DLDDW
45%BOU WIN
2–1
Likeliest BOU win · 9%
Brentford
59Index67Attack47Defense
DWDDL
BOURNEMOUTH 45%DRAW 24%BRENTFORD 31%
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Both teams score
68%
Expected goals
1.9 · 1.6
Why
- Brentford attack index 67 meets Bournemouth defense index 48 — an away-side mismatch the table won't show you.
- The model makes this 45% vs 31% — closer than the table suggests.
Head to head · 8 league meetings since 2022/23
BOU 03 drawn5 BRE
2025/26BOU0–0BRE2026-03-03
2025/26BRE4–1BOU2025-12-27
2024/25BOU1–2BRE2025-03-15
2024/25BRE3–2BOU2024-11-09
2023/24BOU1–2BRE2024-05-11
Bournemouth — projected scorers
Brentford — projected scorers
Projections assume recent minutes patterns — the model doesn’t know lineups.
What the grid implies
Goals
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals67%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Both teams score68%
Double chance
BOU or draw69%
Draw or BRE55%
BOU or BREno draw76%
Draw no bet
BOUstake returned on a draw59%
BRE41%
Clean sheets
BOU clean sheet21%
BRE clean sheet15%
Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.
Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
| BOU↓ BRE→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | ||||||
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Darker green = likelier. Rows are BOU goals, columns BRE. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
Price movement — 4 pre-kickoff assessments, every one kept
30 Aug, 16:29BOU 44.8% (−1.0 since first)draw 23.8%BRE 31.4%
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.