Saturday 29 Aug, 17:30 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–0✓ called — the win we priced at 73% · RPS 0.042
The claim — frozen at kickoff
Borussia-Dortmund
IndexAttackDefense
73% WIN
2–0
Most likely score
Hamburger-Sv
IndexAttackDefense
BORUSSIA-DORTMUND 73%DRAW 17%HAMBURGER-SV 10%
FT 2–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.042). Graded 2026-08-29 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Both teams score
55%
Expected goals
2.6 · 0.9
Borussia-Dortmund — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
Hamburger-Sv — projected scorers
No qualified projections yet.
These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
- Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
- Opponent strength and venue
- Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
- Confirmed lineups
- Injuries and suspensions
- Cup rotation plans
Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Borussia-Dortmund and Hamburger-Sv — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.
Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.