Thursday 27 Aug, 20:00 · engine xGB Core v1 · graded — published before kickoff, never edited
Full time
2–0✓ called — the win we priced at 76% · RPS 0.033
The claim — frozen at kickoff

Barcelona

IndexAttackDefense
76% WIN
2–0
Most likely score

Athletic-Club

IndexAttackDefense
BARCELONA 76%DRAW 15%ATHLETIC-CLUB 9%
FT 2–0 — the model called it (RPS 0.033). Graded 2026-08-28 · permanent record at /model.
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Both teams score
58%
Expected goals
2.8 · 1.0
Barcelona — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

Athletic-Club — projected scorers

No qualified projections yet.

These are the projections exactly as published before kickoff — never edited after the fact.

What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Barcelona and Athletic-Club — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.